What would be the impact of the electric shared autonomous driving technology on car making industry, passenger mobility and societal organization?

Abstract:

The emergence of electric autonomous driving technology is set to radically transform the car-making industry, passenger mobility, and societal organization. The convergence of decarbonization, digital transition, and artificial intelligence has accelerated this technological evolution, making electric shared autonomous vehicles a cornerstone of future mobility. This research investigates the multifaceted impacts of this disruptive innovation, focusing on three primary domains:
1. Car-making Industry: How will the car production, business models, and economic structures of the automotive sector adapt to the rise of shared autonomous electric vehicles?
2. Passenger Mobility: What changes will this technology bring to how individuals and communities move, both in urban and rural areas?
3. Societal Organization: How will shared autonomous vehicles reshape urban spaces, reduce car ownership, and enable Mobility as a Service (MaaS)?

Additionally, the research explores the utility and disutility of travel time within the context of shared autonomous vehicles. Traditionally considered wasted in private car travel, this study examines how autonomous driving may redefine travel time as productive or leisure-focused, akin to public transportation modes like high-speed trains.

This study employs a mixed-methods approach to analyze the impacts of electric shared autonomous driving technology:
- Literature Review: A comprehensive analysis of existing research on decarbonization, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and autonomous vehicle technology provides the foundation for understanding key trends and challenges.
- Case Studies: The research examines real-world implementations of autonomous driving technologies in urban and rural settings to evaluate their impacts on mobility, car making industry, and societal organization. Examples include pilot projects in cities experimenting with MaaS platforms and rural areas adopting shared autonomous vehicle solutions.
- Quantitative Modeling: Using transportation economics frameworks, the study measures the utility of travel time in autonomous vehicles compared to traditional modes of road transport. Models assess the potential economic benefits of converting travel time into productive or leisure activities.

1. Impacts on the Car-making Industry
The automotive sector faces a paradigm shift due to the integration of shared electric and autonomous driving technologies. Key findings include:
- Reduced Vehicle Demand: The generalization of MaaS platforms is projected to decrease drastically car ownership, leading to smaller vehicle fleets.
- New Business Models: Manufacturers are transitioning from a product-based to a service-based economy, offering subscription models and shared mobility solutions.
- Supply Chain Transformation: The need for advanced software, sensors, and batteries is reshaping supply chains and increasing the importance of partnerships with tech firms.

Shared electric autonomous vehicles are expected to significantly alter mobility patterns:
- Urban Mobility: Shared autonomous vehicles reduce traffic congestion and parking space requirements, freeing urban spaces for other uses.
- Rural Mobility: Shared autonomous vehicles offer new opportunities for underserved areas by providing cost-effective and accessible transportation options to equipments and essentials services for the inhabitants.
- Increased Accessibility and inclusive mobility: Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, disabled and children, without drive licenses, poor etc., will gain greater mobility independence as normal people.

Shared autonomous vehicles will likely lead to major shifts in societal behavior and urban planning:
- Redesign of Urban Spaces: Fewer privately owned vehicles mean less need for parking infrastructure, allowing cities to repurpose these areas for green spaces, housing, or commercial development.
- Environmental Benefits: Shared electric autonomous vehicles contribute to decarbonization efforts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly when integrated with renewable energy sources. And also for diminishing the air and noise pollution
- Platform Economy: The rise of MaaS platforms enables efficient coordination of resources and facilitates innovative pricing and accessibility models.

A critical aspect of this research is the re-evaluation of travel time utility:
- From Wasted to Productive Time: Unlike traditional car travel, where drivers must remain focused on the drive, autonomous vehicles allow passengers to engage in work, leisure, or other productive activities during the travel time.
- Comparison with Public Transport: Autonomous vehicles bridge the gap between private cars and public transport, offering the flexibility of the former with the productivity of the latter. The distinction between the private and public modes will be very blurred.
- Economic Implications: By converting unproductive travel time into useful activities, shared autonomous vehicles can enhance individual and societal productivity, reshaping economic models of transportation.